Jacob Davis
CSMS Magazine
On February 7, 2026, Haiti’s Transitional Presidential Council (CPT) — the interim governing body installed in April 2024 to steer the country toward elections and stability — officially ended its mandate without a replacement government in place, plunging the country once again into political limbo.
The CPT was established after then-Prime Minister Ariel Henry resigned amid escalating violence and international pressure. It was tasked with restoring order in Haiti — a country that has not held general elections since 2016 and has had no elected national officials since 2023 — and organizing elections that would culminate in a new president being sworn in by the February 2026 deadline.
Despite its extended 22-month tenure, the council failed to deliver on key objectives. It did not hold elections, and deep divisions within Haiti’s fragile political landscape made it impossible to build the consensus necessary to install a successor governance structure. This failure has left Haiti in a power vacuum at a moment of extreme instability.
Political Fallout
With the CPT dissolved, the transition role has reverted to Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé, who was backed by the United States and served as the only remaining executive authority after internal council conflicts. Fils-Aimé has vowed to restore security and pursue long-overdue elections, but his authority remains tenuous in the face of widespread skepticism and a deteriorating security environment.
The U.S. Embassy has publicly endorsed Fils-Aimé’s leadership role while signaling concern over potential unrest tied to the council’s expiration. Warnings from U.S. officials urged caution as the Feb. 7 deadline approached, underscoring fears that political uncertainty could trigger broader instability.
Experts and analysts suggest Haiti’s political elites have not forged an inclusive, nationally accepted roadmap for transition, raising the real possibility of competing interim authorities or ad hoc power arrangements emerging in the absence of elections.
Security Crisis and Humanitarian Impact
The political vacuum comes against a backdrop of severe insecurity marked by the entrenchment of heavily armed gangs that control large swaths of Port-au-Prince and other regions. These groups have crippled state institutions, forced the closure of schools and hospitals, and driven mass displacement. More than 1.4 million people were internally displaced by late 2025, complicating any effort to prepare for credible elections.
International efforts to bolster security — including the deployment of a U.N.-backed international force and U.S. naval assets stationed offshore — have failed to sufficiently curb gang violence. The initial plan called for up to 5,500 multinational peacekeepers, but only a fraction of that number has arrived, according to reports.
Security analysts note that without a legitimate central government to coordinate and lead a comprehensive stabilization strategy, gains from security initiatives will remain limited. The normalization of armed actors as de facto power brokers further undermines any pathway toward elections.
Electoral Timetable in Jeopardy
Late in 2025, Haiti’s Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) adopted an electoral calendar setting first-round presidential and legislative elections for August 30, 2026, with a runoff in December. This calendar marked the first concrete electoral plan in years and was viewed by many as the best chance to restore democratic governance.
However, with the CPT’s mandate already expired and no clear transition authority to oversee the process, the feasibility of meeting that timetable is now in question. Logistics for nationwide elections in a context of heightened insecurity and weak state capacity are monumental, and some observers view further delays as almost inevitable.
Regional and International Dynamics
Regional actors, including the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) and the United States, had pushed for adherence to the Feb. 7 deadline as a means of safeguarding Haiti from further endemic governance failure. In the days before the mandate expired, Caribbean officials stressed that moving the deadline would erode trust in the political process and deepen fragmentation.
The U.S. — which has applied sanctions on transitional council members and sustained diplomatic pressure for elections — continues to play a central role in Haiti’s political evolution. Critics argue that heavy foreign involvement without matching domestic consensus risks perpetuating instability rather than resolving it.
Looking Ahead
As Haiti enters another phase of political uncertainty, the most immediate questions revolve around who will exercise legitimate authority, how a credible electoral process can be organized under current conditions, and whether international partners can bridge the chasm between political ambitions and on-the-ground realities.
For Haitians weary of violence, displacement, and institutional breakdown, the expiration of the transition government’s mandate marks not just a missed deadline but an ongoing, acute crisis of governance with no clear exit in sight.
Also, see: Vertières Revisited: In Haiti’s Darkest Hour, the Whisper of Heroes Endures
