Jacob Davis
CSMS Magazine
Haiti finds itself at a perilous crossroads, grappling with extreme insecurity, institutional collapse, widespread displacement, and dwindling public trust. Against this backdrop, the question of whether general elections can genuinely occur—let alone be free, fair, and meaningful—seems more daunting than ever.
Security Collapse and Gang Dominance
Haiti is enduring a spiraling security crisis. Armed gangs now wield near-total control over Port-au-Prince and substantial portions of the country, with U.N. officials estimating they dominate up to 90 percent of the capital. These armed groups have orchestrated massacres, kidnappings, and mass displacements—over 1.3 million people have been displaced in 2025 alone. The state has seen its presence collapse, particularly in gang-controlled areas, decimating basic public services and electoral infrastructure.
A Kenyan-led Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission and even weaponized drones deployed by the transitional government, both remain under-resourced and controversial—raising ethical and operational concerns.
Institutional Paralysis and Democratic Deficit
Haiti has had no national elections since 2016 and lacks any functioning elected legislature or presidency. Parliament dissolved in 2020, and the last remaining senators’ mandates ended by 2023. The Transitional Presidential Council (TPC), established in April 2024, holds executive authority only until February 7, 2026. While the Provisional Electoral Council (CEP) has been reinstated to prepare for elections and a constitutional referendum, its work has been stymied by logistical delays, opaque planning, and public skepticism.
Humanitarian Crisis and Institutional Distrust
Haiti now endures one of its worst humanitarian crises in recent memory. Between late 2024 and mid-2025, nearly 5,000 people were killed in gang-related violence, while millions face acute hunger, displacement, and lack of basic services. The collapse of judicial and electoral institutions has only deepened public distrust. Freedom House deems Haiti “Not Free,” citing broken electoral systems, undemocratic power structures, and no electoral legitimacy.
Roadmap and Deadlines — But Are They Realistic?
Transitional authorities assert a constitutional referendum, and general elections must occur by early 2026, aligned with a TPC mandate ending February 7, 2026. Some sources mention a provisional target for elections in November 2025, but this timetable is widely viewed as politically motivated and practically unrealistic given the security and institutional gaps.
International Involvement and Political Divides
CARICOM, the UN, and other international actors have pushed for elections and dialogue. Yet, Haiti’s polarized political environment and elite divisions complicate consensus. Corruption remains rampant—Haiti scored 16 out of 100 on the 2024 Corruption Perceptions Index, placing 168th out of 180 countries. Moreover, recent disputes, such as a contested port lease deal and bribery warnings from the U.S., further undermine institutional credibility.
Finally, Haiti’s transitional roadmap targets elections by early 2026; in reality, the country’s pervasive gang violence, institutional fragility, humanitarian collapse, and political distrust cast a long shadow over any such plan. Without significant and credible improvements in security, transparent electoral infrastructure, and public trust—possibly through dialogue, reform, and stabilization—holding a legitimate general election by the TPC’s February 2026 deadline appears unlikely. What is clear is that elections cannot be a mere checklist item—viable democratic transition depends on meaningful transformation at every level.
Also, see: “No Sympathy Without Struggle”: Understanding Dessalines’s Boldest Proclamation
